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How carmakers switch to electric vehicles will strain supply of battery minerals

Billions of electric vehicles are expected to hit the worlds roads in coming decades.

Adjunct professor, Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Oakland University

M.S. Candidate in Systems Engineering, Oakland University

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As it transitions from fossil fuels to renewables, electricity generation will place a burden on the global supply of critical battery minerals.

The worlds battery capacity must grow 40 times larger than it is today, and electric vehicles will require 80% of that future capacity. There will also be increased need for integrated circuits.

Competition for both will develop between vehicles and other uses. Trains, trolley buses and other continuously powered vehicles should play a central role in transportation planning, easing the demand for these critical minerals.

The worlds automakers have announced their intention to switch from petroleum to battery-electric vehicles by the mid-2030s, but EVs requiresix timesthe mineral inputs of conventional cars, as well as increased quantities of integrated circuits. Already, a worldwide shortage of integrated circuits is forcing automakers toreduce productionof petroleum vehicles; is there a sustainable supply of needed materials for billions of EVs? We must look at the environmental and societal costs of the EV supply chain, and how to minimize the need for critical minerals per passenger-kilometre.

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Increased reliance on wind and solar will highlight the intermittency of these sources, as they generate too much power on sunny days, and too little at night, in the rain, and in the winter. Fossil fuels provide stored energy to be burned on demand, but a renewable energy future will require battery storage, and will strain a scarce supply. The capacity to store electrical power will likely be insufficient to meet demands, meaning that consumers could have to choose between charging their electric vehicles or watching their televisions.

We promote electrified mass transit options, such as trains and trolleys, to better align the supply of stored power to transportation needs.

Emissions from mobility will increase through 2050, jeopardising our chances to combat climate change. By electrifying urban fleets, we can mitigate more than 70% of mobility CO2 urban emissions, remove 50% of city air pollution, and electrify rides to everyone – making the electrification transition more effective and equitable.

Understanding that coordination is needed to create tangible progress, this February the World Economic Forum launched a collaborative umbrella network that will help sync and synergize related global initiatives: the Zero Emissions Urban Fleets (ZEUF) network.

ZEUF is a network of stakeholders for accelerating urban fleets electrification, targeting 100% by 2030. Initiated by the World Economic Forums Global New Mobility Coalition in partnership with Uber, T&E, EuroCities, Free Now, LeasePlan, Door2Door, Lime, Blot, Voi, AEDIVE, Polis, The Climate Group, Race to Zero, and others, ZEUF is an open network that convenes periodically to facilitate informal know-how exchange and efforts coordination.

An EV can use as much as10,000 times as much lithiumas a single smart phone, leading to a supply competition between the worlds auto and device manufacturers. In theIEAs 2021 sustainable development scenarioof critical minerals, 80% of battery storage in 2040 would be used in light-duty electric vehicles, and this will require a 40-fold increase in the production of lithium and nickel and more than 20 times as much as copper, graphite and cobalt compared with 2020 levels.

The average vehicle isparked 96% of the time, meaning the scarce materials for batteries and chips will sit largely unused. Batteries naturallydegrade over timeand experience a slow loss of power known as aphantom drain, which may require the battery to be jumped withanother battery. In a neighborhood full of EVs, the grid may experience overloading as people connect their cars in the evening, and theelectrical grid itselfmay need battery storage to charge EV batteries.

The motor, the charging system and even battery thermal management of an EV will require an increase in integrated circuits, but the manufacture of these circuits hasa giant carbon footprintand requires huge amounts of water. Taiwan manufactures two-thirds of the worlds semiconductors and is facing a drought: Officials and scholars have warned that water scarcity could become a morepersistent problemin the years to come because of climate change, the Wall Street Journal wrote in April, and farmers are concerned that a prolonged shortage could leave their lands barren.

Semiconductor manufacturers are building new facilities in the North American Southwest, but global warming has turneda moderate drought into a megadroughtin the region. Similarly,65%of the entire water supply of Chiles Salar de Atacama is dedicated to lithium extraction, creating extreme water shortages and affecting local farmers abilities to grow crops and maintain livestock.

An increase in mineral demand could lead to significantgreenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, contamination and human rights violations. The Democratic Republic of Congoproduces 60%of the worlds cobalt (a key component in battery formulations), which will be in such high demand thatreserves will be depletedby 2030, leading to more intensive mining over time. In the DRC, Amnesty International has linked cobalt mining tohuman rights abuses, specifically with regards to child labor violations.

Minerals critical to the clean energy transition have been found in the deep ocean floor. These include cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel, manganese and zinc that are used in batteries for electric vehicle and portable electronics, electronic appliances, energy generation and many other aspects of our daily lives.

Deep-sea mining could offer lower financial cost and a lighter carbon footprint than conventional terrestrial sources of these minerals; it also has the potential to significantly harm one of the last natural wildernesses on our plant. In this relatively young sector, scientific knowledge is still being built on the potential impact of the industry, and the effectiveness of the proposed management methods. As the date for decisions on permitting deep-sea mining contracts gets closer, a fierce debate is emerging on if and how mining should take place. The need for a platform to host a balanced exchange on the issue has become evident.

The World Economic ForumsPlatform for Shaping the Future of Global Public Goodshas theDeep-Sea Mining Dialogue, an impartial platform that allows different stakeholders to share their knowledge and perspective on the topic and participate in an evidence-based discourse. The Dialogue invites companies in the metal value chain, manufacturers that use metals, environmental groups, institutes and scientists across different disciplines to come together in a constructive, collaborative and open exchange.

The Dialogue helps inform downstream businesses that use metals in their products about the implications of this potential new source of minerals. The World Economic Forum will be gathering available data and analysis and highlighting critical gaps of existing knowledge to establish a fact-base. Through establishing a framework on responsible metal sourcing, the Dialogue reframes the heated debate on deep-sea mining as a collaborative exploration for a shared vision for the future. The aim is to reach an informed and consensual agreement on the most responsible path forward.

Batteries account for30% to 40%of the cost of an EV, and a price surge or supply disruption could make EVs less attractive to consumers, driving them back to the safe choice of petroleum vehicles. The price oflithium-ion batteries declined by halffrom 2014 to 2018, but by only 10% since then. Savings through innovation and economies of scale quickly give way to supply and demand; mining does not benefit from a network effect. Mines located in challenging social and political environments may lead towaves of resource nationalismdisrupting supplies, as happened, for example, with theDRCs 2018 tax hikeon cobalt and copper. Problems associated with charging EVs have already resulted in1 in 5 EV ownersin California reverting to petroleum.

The pursuit of critical materials for vehicles will become a threat to the long-term sustainability of the transport sector unless improved public transportation is prioritized. The bulk of public transportation should use continuous rather than stored power. Electric trains, trolleybuses andeHighwaysusing rails or overhead lines should be the backbone of a new transportation infrastructure.

Fortunately, this does not require technological breakthroughsit is not a vehicle problem, but an urban design problem. A sustainable future is primarily about reimagining, rather than reinventing, transportation. While rail is among the most energy efficient modes of transport for freight and passengers,it is often neglected in public debate.

Now is the time to have that debate.

Patrick Hillberg,Adjunct professor, Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Oakland University

Sawyer Hall,M.S. Candidate in Systems Engineering, Oakland University

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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